Smoke & Mirrors?
... Bordeaux under pressure ...
In modern economics and technology theory, the Fragility of Augmented Scarcity describes the hidden systemic vulnerabilities that arise when artificial barriers and bottlenecks are used to restrict the distribution of goods that would otherwise be abundant. It suggests that trying to preserve old models of value creates dangerous, easily breakable structures.
This phenomenon may be reflected in the current Bordeaux wine market. Consequently, it is pertinent to examine the current conditions in this renowned wine region and assess which wines are prudent purchases for today’s consumers.
Since 1982, investment in Bordeaux wines through the En Primeur system has typically yielded substantial returns, with annual gains frequently surpassing those of the stock market. This strategy has proven to be an effective long-term investment, particularly when focused on top-quality wines from exceptional vintages.
However, by 2026, this trend may no longer persist. While market fluctuations are well recognised, several novel factors have emerged in recent years. For instance, an article by David Williams, wine critic for The Observer, published on 24 April 2026, featured the subheading, ‘France’s most famous region is in turmoil as producers make far more bottles than they can possibly sell.’ The article discusses reports of unsold inventory and cash flow challenges, issues that have been circulating for the past several years.
Jancis Robinson noted in the Financial Times on 31 May 2025, ‘Traditional customers are getting older and have full cellars. Younger people who are interested in wine have so many more wines to choose from than the slow-maturing reds of Bordeaux.’ Over the subsequent twelve months, the Bordeaux wine market has softened further. Notably, prices for older vintages of Claret, which are high-quality and suitable for immediate consumption, have declined, whereas newer wines require extended ageing.
Anecdotal evidence from London wine merchants over the past year indicates a decline in demand, attributed to an oversupply of fine wine in the market and resulting decreases in prices for older vintages. For instance, Chateau Haut-Brion 2010 was initially released En Primeur at approximately £600–£650 per bottle, but is currently listed at £480 on the Justerini website. This wine has received a rating from Parker of 99/100 and Robinson 19/20. Similarly, Margaux 2009 was offered En Primeur at £530 and is now priced at £475. In contrast, Latour 2010 has experienced a modest increase from £820 to £875. These wines are suitable for consumption in a couple of years and are expected to remain in optimal condition for at least another decade.
French banks are also playing a significant role in making more fine wine more widely available. While they have historically supported Bordeaux estates, financial institutions are concerned about debt levels and sales. Crédit Agricole, the largest lender to the French agricultural and wine sectors, is now closely involved in the crisis. The bank has been compelled to mediate debt and assist in restructuring hundreds of overleveraged properties. As a result, châteaux are selling wine into an already depressed market, which is driving prices down further.
Additional factors are contributing to the situation. Bulk wine prices have fallen sharply, and domestic demand in France has declined, with younger generations consuming far less than previous ones. At the lower end of the market, the French Government is also encouraging growers to remove vines and plant alternative crops due to regional oversupply. Although these do not directly impact the En Primeur market, they nevertheless contribute to broader, longer-term concerns.
Combine these factors with a school of thought that believes the Bordelais have been too greedy since the early 80s. As a reference point, the 1982 En Primeur price of Château Lynch-Bages sold by Berrys was £8.25 per bottle. The 2025 En Primeur price is £195.00. That represents an increase of 2,264%. French inflation from 1982 to 2025 was 160%. Although this is a snapshot of one, very specific property, there are many other examples of similar price rises. Ultimately, this is a reflection on the power and desirability of Claret, and these rises simply demonstrate market forces at work.
Taken together, the above makes it difficult to assess how the market will evolve over the next five to ten years. Many of the prestigious properties are very well funded, and therefore, there is no immediate crisis. But if you are not financed by a wealthy family or a large corporate entity, then the outlook might be rather bleak.
From a consumer perspective, the other side of this coin might provide an interesting investment opportunity. It could be argued that if pricing is currently deflated, this might be a good time to buy wines such as the Haut-Brion 2010 noted above as a long-term investment, with all the usual caveats of any investment. Almost certainly, but if that is a consideration, then only purchase the stars from the top vintages, and view them on the assumption that if they do not create a good return, then you will have a wine to drink that will be superb over the coming decades.
If you need Claret for drinking over the next few years, the small list below has been well reviewed by the critics and are either just below or a fraction above their En Primeur prices. The Cos d’Estournel listed below received a stellar rating from one very well-known critic.
1 - Grand Puy Lacoste 2020 - En Primeur £54; In Bond June ‘26 £47 - Drink 2030 onwards - Justerinis
2 - Haut-Bailly 2020 - En Primeur £100: In Bond June ‘26 £95 - Drink 2028 onwards - Justerinis
3 - Cos d’Estournel 2016 - En Primeur £120; In Bond June ‘26 £131 - Drink 2030 onwards - Berrys
4- Haut-Brion 2010 - En Primeur £600-£650; In Bond June ‘26 £480 - Drink 2030 onwards - Justerinis
5 - Margaux 2009 - En Primuer £530; In Bond June ‘26 £475 - Drink 2030 onwards - Justerinis
6 - Latour 2010 - En Primeur £820; In Bond June ‘26 £875 - Drink 2040 onwards - Justerinis
Another wine drinking to perfection at the moment is Domaine de Chevalier 2009. Available In Bond at Berrys from £400 for 6 bottles, as well as Farr and Goedhuis. It is an exceptional wine, and I have been very lucky to have tasted it on several occasions over the last six months.
While En Primeur is steeped in history and tradition, today’s market revolves around a simple question: what makes it worth committing now? Buyers seek unmistakable value over past vintages, true rarity, the promise of future demand, or the thrill of securing a coveted wine before anyone else.
En Primeur continues to deliver real advantages. It opens doors to wines that often vanish after bottling, particularly in exceptional years or from exclusive estates. While lower opening prices can be a perk, this is less certain in today’s climate. Early purchase guarantees pristine provenance, with bottles coming straight from the source. There is also the chance to claim rare formats, such as magnums or even larger bottles.
In recent campaigns, pricing has taken centre stage. Buyers are expected to pay upfront, wait patiently for delivery, and tie up funds in a market full of uncertainty. When bottled vintages are available at similar prices, En Primeur starts to look like a gamble rather than an opportunity.
So, should we sound the alarm and warn buyers away from a market facing real challenges, or do the unique advantages of En Primeur still make a compelling case for snapping up the 2025s now on offer?
Based on my recent tastings, the 2025 vintage ranges from very good to truly outstanding. I suggest focusing on wines crafted for the long haul, those destined to shine from 2040 and beyond. In the coming weeks, I will share a shortlist of bottles worth considering for your cellar. My advice: approach the 2025s with selectivity, but do not miss out.
Also, in another missive, I shall be assessing high-quality Cabernet Sauvignons and Merlots from other wine regions around the world, at different price points.
As some of us are ageing, we might not be here to enjoy the results of these purchases. Depends when you feel the Grim Reaper will appear over the horizon. But keeping it in perspective is also very important, and as one old friend always used to say, ‘by the time they are ready for drinking, you will have forgotten how much you paid.’